Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, September 2011

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Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®, September 2011

National report (USA), released by ISM on October 3 2011.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September for the 26th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 28th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued on October 3 by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The PMI registered 51.6 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from August, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 26th consecutive month, at a slightly higher rate. The Production Index registered 51.2 percent, indicating a return to growth after contracting in August for the first time since May of 2009. The New Orders Index remained unchanged from August at 49.6 percent, indicating contraction for the third consecutive month. The Backlog of Orders Index decreased 4.5 percentage points to 41.5 percent, contracting for the fourth consecutive month and reaching its lowest level since April 2009, when it registered 40.5 percent. Comments from respondents generally reflect concern over the sluggish economy, political and policy uncertainty in Washington, and forecasts of ongoing high unemployment that will continue to put pressure on demand for manufactured products.”

PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 12 are reporting growth in September, in the following order: Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

The six industries reporting contraction in September — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • “The economy continues to be a drag on our business outlook. We are trying to deal with new and additional FDA regulations which are costing significant dollars. It is hard to recoup any of these additional costs in our pricing levels without losing significant sales volumes.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Market is cautious, but still steady.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • “Global demand for semiconductors is down and maybe not yet ‘bottomed out.’ Inventory reduction activities are a priority.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Still strong automotive demand.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “Orders remain consistent and steady — no sign of lower demand.” (Paper Products)
  • “Japan supply chain issues are over, but exchange rates and raw material prices are hurting our profit.” (Transportation Equipment)
  • “We sense a weakening in demand, but it is not extreme at this point.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • “Overall, business is improving with a measurable uptick in orders this month. Part of that is due to pre-holiday season orders.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • “Business continues to be sluggish.” (Furniture & Related Products)

PMI (Purchasing Managers Index)

Manufacturing continued its growth in September as the PMI registered 51.6 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point when compared to August’s reading of 50.6 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 28th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 26th consecutive month. Holcomb stated, “The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through September (56.2 percent) corresponds to a 4.8 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for September (51.6 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 3.2 percent increase in real GDP annually.”

New Orders

ISM’s New Orders Index registered 49.6 percent in September, which represents the same rate as in August. This is the third consecutive month of contraction in the New Orders Index, following 24 months of growth. A New Orders Index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The seven industries reporting growth in new orders in September — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The nine industries reporting decreases in new orders in September — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

Production

ISM’s Production Index registered 51.2 percent in September, which is an increase of 2.6 percentage points when compared to the August reading of 48.6 percent, and a return to growth following one month of contraction. An index above 51 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The nine industries reporting growth in production during the month of September — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The five industries reporting a decrease in production in September are: Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Employment

ISM’s Employment Index registered 53.8 percent in September, which is 2 percentage points higher than the 51.8 percent reported in August. An Employment Index above 50.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, nine reported growth in employment in September in the following order: Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Machinery. The six industries reporting a decrease in employment in September — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; and Printing & Related Support Activities.

Supplier Deliveries

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in September as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 51.4 percent, which is 0.8 percentage point higher than the 50.6 percent registered in August. This is the 28th consecutive month the Supplier Deliveries Index has been above 50 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The seven industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in September — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment. The four industries reporting faster deliveries in September are: Primary Metals; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. Seven industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in September compared to August.

Inventories

The Inventories Index registered 52 percent in September, 0.3 percentage point lower than the 52.3 percent reported in August. An Inventories Index greater than 42.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The eight industries reporting higher inventories in September — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment. The seven industries reporting decreases in inventories in September — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Primary Metals.

Customers’ Inventories

The ISM Customers’ Inventories Index registered 49 percent in September, 2.5 percentage points higher than in August when the index registered 46.5 percent. This is the 30th consecutive month the Customers’ Inventories Index has been below 50 percent, indicating that respondents believe their customers’ inventories are too low at this time.

The six manufacturing industries reporting customers’ inventories as being too high during September — listed in order — are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery. The seven industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Prices

The ISM Prices Index registered 56 percent in September, 0.5 percentage point higher than the 55.5 percent reported in August. This is the fifth consecutive month the Prices Index has registered below 80 percent since December 2010, and is the 27th consecutive month the index has registered above 50 percent. While 26 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 14 percent reported paying lower prices, 60 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in August. A Prices Index above 49.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 13 report paying increased prices during the month of September, in the following order: Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Transportation Equipment. The only manufacturing industry reporting paying lower prices on average in September is Fabricated Metal Products.

Backlog of Orders

ISM’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.5 percent in September, which is 4.5 percentage points lower than the 46 percent reported in August. Of the 86 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 15 percent reported greater backlogs, 32 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 53 percent reported no change from August.

The three industries reporting increased order backlogs in September are: Wood Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Fabricated Metal Products. The 10 industries reporting decreases in order backlogs during September — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Paper Products; and Transportation Equipment.

New Export Orders

ISM’s New Export Orders Index registered 53.5 percent in September, which is 3 percentage points higher than the 50.5 percent reported in August. This is the 27th consecutive month of growth in the New Export Orders Index.

The seven industries reporting growth in new export orders in September — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products. The four industries reporting a decrease in new export orders during September are: Primary Metals; Machinery; Paper Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. Six industries reported no change in exports in September compared to August.

Imports

Imports of materials by manufacturers continued to expand in September as the Imports Index registered 54.5 percent, 1 percentage point lower than the 55.5 percent reported in August. This is the 25th consecutive month of growth in imports.

The eight industries reporting growth in imports during the month of September — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Chemical Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery. The six industries reporting a decrease in imports during September — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Buying Policy

Average commitment leadtime for Capital Expenditures increased 3 days to 117 days. Average leadtime for Production Materials increased 5 days to 57 days. Average leadtime for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies remained unchanged at 26 days.

Read the full Manufacturing ISM Report On Business…

The data presented in the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®, is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making. View the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® »

About the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management™. The Institute for Supply Management™, established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM’s mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers’ Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI, New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the indicators with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42.5 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42.5 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month’s lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Production Materials; Capital Expenditures; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern.